Last year, when we were still only a blog, Julie tried a fun (and I think successful) experiment, posting her commentary on the Academy Awards ceremony in real-time. Well, since Julie is currently gallivanting around South America, this year the live-blogging honors have been bestowed upon our very capable writer, Rachel.

So hopefully you guys will come back to the site around 8pm EST and play along with us. Rachel’s a very witty girl, and I have no doubt that her running commentary will be nothing short of transcendent (not to put any pressure on her or anything).

The live-blogging will take place on this page here. It’s blank at the moment, but soon it will be filled up. Oh yes, it will most definitely be filled up.

Oh, and if you guys would like to respond to anything Rachel says, or point out some of your own insightful observations, please feel free to use the comments section of this post as your own personal microphone. We here at TrailerSpy love some good audience participation.

Enjoy the Oscars everyone!

As with any movie website worth a damn, we here at TrailerSpy think we are informed enough to make predictions about who the big winners will be come February 24. So here are our picks for the 2008 Academy Award winners:

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

As much as I loved Juno, the Academy Awards has yet to truly warm up to quirky independent comedies (as far as Oscar is concerned, quirky indies, you are always a bridesmaid, never a bride). Plus, the heartwarming tale of a pregnant teen can’t really stand up to these heavy-hitters. Atonement has too many mixed reviews, and I haven’t heard any substantial buzz about Michael Clayton. So that leaves No Country and Blood… If I were a betting girl (and I’m not), I’d put money on No Country for Old Men taking the prize, but I won’t be surprised in the least if There Will Be Blood gets it.

Best Actor
George Clooney-Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis-There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp-Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones-In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen-Eastern Promises

Like I’m going to bet against Daniel Day-Lewis (despite the fact that Viggo showed his junk in Eastern Promises).

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett-Elizabeth:The Golden Age
Julie Christie-Away From Her
Marion Cotillard-La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney-The Savages
Ellen Page-Juno

Tricky, tricky, tricky…I’d take out Linney and Page, due to stuffy Oscar and him not liking the indies so much. And Blanchett already had her shot to win as the Queen in the superior first Elizabeth movie. So that leaves Christie and Cotillard…they each won a Golden Globe, since the Globes are smart enough to split drama and comedy/musical into separate categories. I’ll give Julie Christie my vote, but who knows? This is probably the hardest category to predict; I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them took the award.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck-The Assassination of Jesse James…
Javier Bardem-No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman-Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook-Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson-Michael Clayton

I’d love to see Holbrook win, simply because he seems like such a cool grandfatherly type guy. But I predict Bardem will get it. For wearing that hairdo (and, you know, striking fear into the hearts of millions), the man deserves something.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett-I’m Not There
Ruby Dee-American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan-Atonement
Amy Ryan-Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton-Michael Clayton

Man, the ladies are hard to predict this year! My guess would be the Oscar goes to Blanchett, but there has been a lot of buzz about Ryan’s portrait of a drugged-out loser with a missing kid. Then Ruby Dee went and won the SAG Award (seriously). And Oscar has had a fondness for rewarding youngsters like Ronan for their first big movie role… Screw it; I still say Blanchett gets it.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

No Oscar for anyone but the Old Men.

Best Original Screenplay
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Screenplay seems to be the one category where it’s OK to be a quirky independent film. So here’s hoping this is where Juno wins it’s (likely) only award of the evening.

Best Director
Julian Schnabel-The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman-Juno
Tony Gilroy-Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen-No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood

The Coen brothers. There’s probably no point in even discussing the other nominees.

Best Animated Feature Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

Can anyone explain to me how The Simpsons Movie didn’t get a nomination here? Anyone? Seriously, Surf’s Up got a nomination, but The Simpsons didn’t? Well, I know better than to go against the House of Mouse, so I’ll go with Ratatouille.

Most Missed Dead Celebrity

OK, it’s a bit crass and morbid (and not an official award other than in my head), but each year when the Oscars run their “In Memoriam” slide show of celebrities who passed away in the previous year (or as I call it, “The Celebrity Death Parade”), I like to guess which dearly departed star is the most missed (this can be judged by who gets the loudest and/or longest round of applause when their headshot appears). My guess for this year is either Deborah Kerr or Ingmar Bergman (but I secretly hope it’s Robert Goulet).

Feel free to tell us your opinion here.

As even the most casual of movie fans knows, Oscar season is here. And while the fate of the actual ceremony is up in the air, tiny gold men will still be awarded, so there’s still reason to get excited about this year’s Academy Awards. But if you’re like me, you haven’t gotten around to seeing all five of the Best Picture nominees yet, so how can you make an informed decision on which one to root for?

Luckily, the fine people at AMC Theatres are again offering their Best Picture Showcase: One day. Five films. Unlimited popcorn. Bring it on!

On Saturday, February 23 (the day before the Oscars) certain AMC Theatres around the country will be showing all five of the movies nominated for Best Picture. For $30 you get to see Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, Atonement, Juno, and No Country for Old Men; a large popcorn with unlimited refills; and a collectible pass that allows you to come and go from the theater all day. You can’t even see three movies in the theater for $30, and the price of a large popcorn now requires a withdrawal from your 401K, so it’s a pretty good deal. I’ve already ordered my ticket online and am looking forward to having a movie-centric weekend at the end of February. I’ll do double time at the gym the following week to make up for it.

To see which theaters are showing the Best Picture Showcase and to order tickets online, check out AMC Theatres’ official site.

As with any good movie website, we here at TrailerSpy are big fans of The Academy Awards. And even though the fate of the actual ceremony is a bit uncertain at the moment, that shouldn’t detract from the significance of the Oscar awards themselves. Especially the Oscar for Best Picture.

Therefore, for the second straight year, we thought we’d post the trailers for the five films nominated for Best Picture and ask you a simple question: which one do you think is the best?

Granted, having the best trailer isn’t exactly indicative of which movie will win the actual award; however, since trailers are our business, that’s what we’re choosing to focus on. Plus, it’s a fun way to jump-start the Oscar hype that is sure to follow in the coming weeks.

So here they are…

The Atonement Trailer

The Juno Trailer

The Michael Clayton Trailer

The No Country for Old Men Trailer

The There Will Be Blood Trailer

Tell us which one you think is the best here.

The Departed cleaned up, Marty got his Oscar, and Alan Arkin and Melissa Etheridge pulled off the evening’s upsets. The complete list of winners is here.

Best Dressed: There are so many to choose from, so I am not going to choose just one. My votes go to Cate Blanchett, Queen Latifah, Djimon Honsou, Reese Witherspoon, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and Jodie Foster. Who are your picks? E! Online has a complete gallery.

Live-blogging ain’t easy, but there are plenty of other gluttons for punishment out there. For the complete fashion assessment, there’s no one better than The Fug Girls. For industry gossip, turn to Defamer and Nikki Finke. And then, there’s David Spade.

The award for most boring Academy Awards telecast goes to the 2007 show. (Sorry, Laura Ziskin.) If you didn’t make it to the end, or even to the beginning, here are the bits that you should watch on YouTube.

Jack Black, Will Ferrell, and John C. Reilly singing about being lowly comedians at the Oscars:

Melissa Etheridge’s speech:

Al and Leo being very serious and then actually pretty funny:

Jennifer Hudson’s speech (it turns out she can act):

The silhouette dancers:

Forest Whitaker’s speech:

The best of Ellen (this one’s a bit long):

Martin Scorsese’s speech:

(Photo via Carpetbagger. Photo credit: Mark J. Terrill for the Associated Press.)

Previously: TrailerSpy live blogs the Oscars
The 79th Annual Academy Awards: Let the Drama Begin
TrailerSpy’s Oscar Predictions
Which Best Picture Nominee Has the Best Trailer?

This entry will be updated throughout the night, with the newest entries at the top of the post. Refresh your browser to see the updates. In case you haven’t seen our Oscar predictions, they are here. By the way, these time stamps (all EST) are really useful if you recorded the Oscars on your DVR or TiVo.

UPDATE: Check out our Oscars wrap up, complete with the essential videos from YouTube.

12:12am: Jack and Diane (Keaton) present Best Picture. Finally. The Oscar goes to… The Departed! Yay! Nice shot of Marty watching from the wings. Good speech from Graham King. I’m all Oscar-ed out now.

12:07am: The three amigos, Coppola, Lucas, and Spielberg, are up to present Best Director. Please let Marty win. Please. He won! This is going to be one hell of a speech and one hell of a standing ovation. They better not start playing music, even if he goes on for five minutes. Good speech, Marty.

12:01am: Reese Witherspoon is hot again. Divorce agrees with her. Best Actor goes to Forest Whitaker. I was rooting for an upset just so that something interesting would happen. Whitaker thanks the people of Uganda and his ancestors.

11:52pm: Philip Seymour Hoffman is going for the Nick Nolte look. Wtf is up with his hair? He has dreadlocks! Best Actress time, finally. Helen Mirren wins, and we are all shocked.

11:45pm: Jodie Foster introduces the memorial montage. Will Anna Nicole Smith be included? Nope. The memorial fittingly ends with a tribute to Robert Altman. Is this the longest Oscars ever? Or is it just especially boring? Where is Roberto Benigni when we need him?

11:41pm: After yet another montage (it’s 11:40 already!) Kate Winslet is presenting for Editing. This award could decide many pools. The Oscar goes to The Departed. I think this is going to foreshadow Best Picture. Marty is crying at his editor’s speech. Aww.

11:30pm: Queen Latifah and John Travolta present Best Original Song. Latifah presented this award last year and sang, “It’s Hard Out Here For a Pimp…” when she presented the award. Melissa Etheridge pulls off the huge upset for An Inconvenient Truth! Best speech so far. She is truly touched and humble, and she is seriously thanking Al Gore. Dreamgirls is really getting the bitchslap, except in the one category that I was hoping for an upset.

11:23pm: Dreamgirls song montage. Beyonce gets my vote for Best Actress when she looks at J. Hud and says “you’re the best…” Beyonce is singing her heart out, and nearly busts out of her dress.

11:12pm: Kirsten Dunst and Tobey Maguire present Original Screenplay. They really don’t look happy to be on the stage together. The Oscar goes to Little Miss Sunshine! Yay! For a second there, I was starting to worry that LMS would be shut out. [Ed: Duh, Alan Arkin won already.] Writer Michael Arndt gives one of the better speeches so far.

11:09pm: Hugh Jackman and Penelope Cruz present Best Original Score. I picked The Queen, but I’m wishing I’d picked Babel. The Oscar goes to Babel.

11:02pm: Ennio Morricone accepts his Lifetime Achievement Award, and only the people in Italy understand him. Clint Eastwood is acting as his interpreter. I know Clint can do anything, but interpret Italian? Who knew?

10:47pm: Documentary Feature time. If Al Gore loses, Tipper better keep him away from sharp objects. The Oscar goes to…An Inconvenient Truth! Al Gore, Oscar winner. Screw the White House. Dubya is totally jealous right now. Two points for global warming movies. Al uses his speech to motivate people to actually do something about global warming. Good speech.

10:43pm: Documentary short goes to The Blood of the Yingzhou District.

10:35pm: Best Supporting Actress time. Come on, everybody except Jennifer Hudson! Clooney is looking especially yummy. And the Oscar goes to…. Jennifer Hudson. Crap. Girl, you have officially peaked. Good thing you took off that hideous jacket.

10:31pm: Two of my favorite actors, Clive Owen and Cate Blanchett, are up to present Best Foreign Film. The award goes to The Lives of Others, in an upset. So much for the Pan’s Labyrinth sweep.

10:21pm: Pirates wins for Visual Effects, beating two huge flops, Superman Returns and Poseidon.

10:14pm: Cinematography goes to Pan’s Labyrinth. Darn, looks like Children of Men will go home empty-handed, but Pan’s Labyrinth is indeed on its way to a sweep.

10:08pm: Tom Cruise awards Sherry Lansing an honorary Oscar for humanitarian work. As the former head of Paramount, she is one of the few women who has had real power in Hollywood. Tal asks a good question: has the Academy ever given this award to a studio executive?

10:03pm: Love Emily Blunt’s dress. Emily Blunt and Anne Hathaway are recreating their roles from The Devil Wears Prada, and Meryl is playing along. Costume Design goes to Marie Antoinette. Why is the woman who won wearing a hideous tuxedo? Shouldn’t she, by definition, have the most fabulous outfit?

9:49pm: Best Adapted Screenplay time. I wish Sacha Baron Cohen would win, just for the speech. But it won’t happen. The Oscar goes to The Departed. Could this be the first of many awards for The Departed?

9:43pm: Cameron Diaz is presenting for Best Animated Feature. Our group is split on how well her overall look is working. Consensus is that she’s a little too orange. The award goes to Happy Feet. Has Pixar ever not won this award? One point for global warming movies.

9:36pm: Omg, Al Gore and Leo DiCaprio are so boring. But wait, what is Al Gore announcing? And then the music starts. That’s hilarious!

9:21pm: The first high profile award is up. Best Supporting Actor goes to Alan Arkin!!! WOO HOO!!! Upset alert!! I CALLED IT! Eddie Murphy’s non-win means Dreamgirls has no steam and Jennifer Hudson could very well be upset. (Fingers crossed!)

9:18pm: Please let Kevin O’Connell of Apocalypto win for Sound Mixing. He’s been nominated 18 times, for crying out loud. The award goes to Dreamgirls. Kevin O’Connell is the Susan Lucci of the Oscars. Poor guy. Is it because people won’t vote for anything that Mel Gibson is involved with?

9:14pm: Our entire group picks Letters From Iwo Jima for Sound Editing. The award goes to Letters From Iwo Jima. Yay! The Marine Corps gets a shout out, which has to make my dad happy.

9:05pm: Is Jack playing a cancer patient? Is that why he’s bald? (Update: Yes, he is. Check the last item on R&M.)

9:04pm: Live Action Short goes to West Bank Story. David Edelstein, you’re my hero. Ooh, the West Bank Story director is gorgeous.

9:01pm: Abigail Breslin and Jaden Smith are too cute. Best Animated Short goes to The Danish Poet. Thank you David Edelstein for the hot tip.

8:57pm: Jack Black, Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly = best Oscar skit ever. Make-up Oscar goes to Pan’s Labyrinth.

8:50pm: Don LaFontaine appears and we all shout, “It’s the movie trailer announcer guy! From the Geico commercials!”

8:45pm: Art Direction: My money’s on Pan’s Labyrinth. Woo hoo! The Art Director woman is scary skinny and needs cheeseburgers. Our little party is forecasting a Pan’s sweep in its categories.

8:41pm: Jack is bald. And now he looks kind of creepy. Ellen, you can have a box of chardonnay at my house anytime you want.

8:33pm: The first montage of all the nominees speaking directly to the camera looks very much like the Mac vs. PC commercials. Where is Justin Long?

8:27pm: Andre Leon Talley of Vogue reminds us all why he works at a magazine and not as a television commentator.

7:47pm: Naomi Watts is sporting a bump and is officially pregnant. Congrats, Liev Schrieber. Nicole Kidman–what is up with the ginormous bow around your neck? Even Tal’s reaction is “Why?”

7:32pm: Gwyneth Paltrow has redeemed herself for her black Goth emsemble from a few years ago. Daniel Craig’s date is wearing a gorgeous dress, but she needs to eat many cheeseburgers.

7:24pm: Cate Blanchett hath arrived. She is a fashion goddess and can do no wrong. Oooh, Sacha Baron Cohen. Yum. What is Kirsten Dunst wearing on her top?

7:04pm: We heart Maggie Gyllenhaal. You can never go wrong with old Hollywood glamour. Love Penelope Cruz’s dress, but it is almost identical to the one that Charlize Theron wore the year after she won.

6:58pm: Jennifer Hudson has arrived dressed for her role in the next Star Wars sequel.

6:43pm: All two of TrailerSpy’s writers are in the same room, so we have extra security at the door and another blogger squirreled away for safe keeping.

3:18pm, EST: We’re getting an early jump on this live-blogging thing. Last night, TrailerSpy’s Los Angeles correspondent attended the dress rehearsal at the Oscars. She asked to remain anonymous, so let’s just call her J. Here are J’s notes from the dress rehearsal, but be warned, they CONTAIN SPOILERS.

“Some great stuff…Ellen DeGeneres is going to be hilarious! John C. Reilly, Jack Black and Will Ferrell do a little skit (too funny). Celine Dion is so full of herself it is scary (and if she wears the same dress she wore tonight she needs to hire a new stylist!). Jennifer Hudson and Beyonce and the other girl (forget her name) are AMAZING. Some really cool stages - mostly gold and silver metallic tones - and there are at least 10 different set-ups. They have some GREAT montages (Producer Laura Ziskin LOVES montages). Tonight, sitting in the 3rd row, center stage, in the seat behind where Rachel Weisz and Cameron Diaz will sit, so just a few seats away from Robert Downey Jr., George Lucas, Mark Walhberg, John C.. Reilly, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard will sit tomorrow night, I felt like a star. OH! Not sure if you heard it or not, but ALL of the major awards will be during the last hour. ALL of them. Kinda cool. Great presenters - Al Gore with Leo DiCaprio. John Travolta with Queen Latifah. Jennifer Lopez. Maggie Gyllenhaal. Helen Mirren. Cate Blanchett. George Clooney. Cameron Diaz. Rachel Weisz. Tom Cruise. Clint Eastwood. Abigail Breslin with Jaden Smith. Anyways, from what I saw tonight, I will still watch tomorrow night. Alot of the reason is because if Ellen goes with what she did tonight, I want to hear it again and laugh all over again.”

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.

As you may have noticed, Julie and I are both pretty excited about this year’s Academy Awards. Say what you will about Hollyweird and our culture’s obsession with celebrities; the reality is that the Academy Awards ceremony is damn entertaining. Indeed, the Academy Awards is often just as entertaining as the movies that are being awarded.

Actually, I think in a way, the Academy Awards ceremony is a bit like a movie itself. Just think about it: you’ve got your lead actor (Ellen Degeneres), your story line (who’s gonna win?), a whole lot of interesting subplots (will Marty finally get his Oscar?, will Al Gore announce his candidacy for president on the grandest stage of all?), and you’ve got one hell of a supporting cast (um, every major actor alive today). In fact, you can even expect a few dramatic plot-twists (who the hell thought Crash was gonna beat Brokeback last year?) and you’re always guaranteed to see some stellar acting performances (Halle Berry’s best actress acceptance speech comes to mind).

In my opinion, that’s the real reason why so many people tune in to the Oscars every year. Yes, I’m sure that some people just want to see who’s wearing what, and plenty of other people are just curious who’s gonna win and who’s gonna lose. But in my opinion, the reason most of us watch is to see the drama that unfolds during the awards ceremony itself. For example, imagine the shock that will vibrate through Kodak Theatre if Cate Blanchet wins best supporting actress instead of Jennifer Hudson (as Julie has so bravely predicted). And for christ’s sake, who the hell is going to win the best picture this year? Plus, let’s not forgot the interesting study in human nature that occurs when a person is simultaneously handed the biggest award of their lifetime and then asked to give a speech in front of an audience of millions.

The truth is that the Academy Awards ceremony really is a movie unto itself. Which is why it may not be surprising that the Academy Awards has its very own trailer. Take a look if you’re interested. It was directed by Spike Lee. In my opinion, it kinda sucks, but I’m still pretty certain that the awards ceremony is going to be excellent. That’s why I’m gonna take a risk and say SEE IT.

The 79th Annual Academy Awards airs Sunday at 8pm eastern time on ABC. (Official Site)

Oh, and tune in during the ceremony when Julie is going to be making TrailerSpy’s first ever attempt at live-blogging.

It’s Oscar Weekend, so tomorrow is the Oscar Movie Marathon at AMC Theatres across the country. For $30 bucks you can sit through all five of the Best Picture nominees during AMC’s Best Picture Showcase. AMC’s official info is here.

If you live in the New York City area and are interested in seeing all the Oscar nominated short movies, the IFC Center is showing them. Buy one ticket and you can see all the live action shorts or all the animated shorts. These are the toughest categories to handicap and here is your chance to gain a real edge in your Oscar pool. Showtimes are here.

(Side note: We’ll be live-blogging the Oscars on Sunday, starting around 7pm.)

On a non-Oscar topic, if you live in the NYC or NJ area, a trip to the Loew’s Jersey is a must. This is an old movie palace, the kind that most of us have only seen in films. If you can imagine the grand cinemas where old movie premieres were held, then you are on the right track. The screen is several stories tall, and there are ornate paintings on the ceiling, crystal chandeliers, and grand staircases. Built in 1929, the theatre fell into disrepair and it is now being painstakingly restored by volunteers.

Loew’s Jersey only shows films one weekend a month, and this weekend they are screening their top 3 most-requested movies. If you’ve ever wanted to see one of these classics on a five-story screen, here is your chance.

Friday, 8pm: Back To The Future
Saturday, 2pm: Gone With The Wind
Saturday, 8pm: Casablanca

Adult tickets are just $6 and all proceeds benefit the theatre’s restoration. Snacks are cheap too. The Loew’s Jersey Theatre is surprisingly easy to reach from Manhattan, just steps away from the Journal Square PATH stop.

I can’t tell you how much I recommend visiting the Landmark Loew’s Jersey Theatre, at least once. Their official site is here.

Whether you want to win your Oscar pool or just sound informed at a party on the big night, we’ve got you covered. Here are my Oscar picks, with lots of help from the experts at Oscar Watch.

Supporting Actress
Ok, I’m going to begin with a doozy that may start some arguments. If you want the safe bet, pick Jennifer Hudson, but I’m going to bet that she won’t win. There is no freakin’ way that Academy members, who are elitist overachievers, are going to give an Oscar to an actor in her first acting job. That doesn’t happen unless the actor is 12. The Academy is tired of Dreamgirls (remember, it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture) and frankly, Hudson’s been completely over-hyped. Anybody who saw Dreamgirls after mid-January walked away from her performance thinking, that’s it? I mean, the girl can sing, there’s no denying that. But the award is Best Supporting Actress. And let me tell you, every other nominee acted circles around Jennifer Hudson, even 10-year-old Abigail Breslin. However, Breslin won’t win. Both Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi were amazing in Babel, but they will split votes from Babel fans. All of which leaves Cate Blanchett to swoop in for her second Best Supporting Actress Oscar in three years. Her performance in the climactic scene of Notes on a Scandal was a work of art (as was Judi Dench’s, but it’s not her year). Furthermore, Blanchett has worked with a good percentage of the Academy, and the Academy votes for its own.
Safe Bet: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
My Pick: Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy, unlike Jennifer Hudson, is actually an actor, or at least a comedian. I did walk away from Dreamgirls pleasantly surprised by how good he was in the role. Then again, this is also the man behind Norbit, and those Norbit ads were unmissable during the entire voting period. Of the other nominees, Alan Arkin has the most momentum. Jackie Earle Haley is the other upset candidate, but he is playing a pedophile in Little Children, which few people saw.
Safe Bet: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
My Pick: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Lead Actress
The Academy has already started engraving this award with Helen Mirren’s name on it. She simply was Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, and it is impossible to imagine anyone else in the role.
Safe Bet: Helen Mirren, The Queen
My Pick: Helen Mirren, The Queen

Lead Actor
Reese Witherspoon has presented so many awards to Forest Whitaker this season that by now they are old friends. Oscar night will be no different. Ryan Gosling will get another shot, and sentiment isn’t enough to carry Peter O’Toole to the podium.
Safe Bet: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
My Pick: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Director
This is Martin Scorsese’s sixth Oscar nomination for Best Director, and eighth nomination overall, but every year he has gone home empty-handed. (He was nominated for Adapted Screenplay for Goodfellas and The Age of Innocence.) He was supposed to have won in 2005 for The Aviator, but Clint Eastwood stole his thunder with Million Dollar Baby. The Aviator was a good, but long, movie, and The Departed is brilliant. This is Marty’s year, plain and simple.
Safe Bet: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
My Pick: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Best Picture
This year’s Best Picture race is so close that Fox Searchlight has hired people to give cupcakes away in Los Angeles on behalf of Little Miss Sunshine. It has devolved into a high school popularity contest, but with much larger stakes.

If I were an Oscar voter, I would look at the Best Picture category as a question of legacy. Which film is going to leave the greater legacy? Which film has a greater legacy: Dances With Wolves, or Goodfellas? Goodfellas, of course, but Dances won.

Prognosticators and bookies have The Departed, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine in a dead heat. Letters From Iwo Jima is a masterpiece, but hardly anybody saw it. Plus, Clint won for Best Picture twice already. The Queen is a really good television movie. Many people are predicting gold for Little Miss Sunshine, and as much as I would love for that to happen, comedies simply don’t win, especially not zany comedies about a family of losers.

The real contenders are Babel and The Departed. Not many people saw Babel, but those who did either loved Babel or they really hated it. There was a fair amount of frontal female nudity, which will turn off notoriously conservative Oscar voters. Numerous websites are saying that Babel is this year’s Crash, since they share similar themes. All those people who were heartbroken that Crash took the big prize over Brokeback Mountain last year are not going to be voting for Babel.

So I am going to go with The Departed. At two and a half hours long, I was expecting to be bored and antsy, but I barely blinked. The box office winner has a definite advantage in the Best Picture race, and the sentiment for Martin Scorsese will be a huge factor.
Safe Bet: Babel or The Departed
My Pick: The Departed

Agree? Disagree? Let’s hear it…

For analysis and picks on the rest of the categories, click here.

Previously: Which Best Picture nominee has the Best Trailer?

The Best Picture race is unusually tight this year, and movies are looking for any advantage they can get. Which Best Picture nominee has the best trailer? You be the judge. Here they are, in alphabetical order.

Babel:

The Departed:

Letters From Iwo Jima:

Little Miss Sunshine:

The Queen:

Click here for TrailerSpy’s Oscar predictions.